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correlation & regression

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4 detailed 50-minute lessons with teaching scripts, worked examples, parent guides, and assessment criteria.

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Lesson Overview

Total Lessons: 4
Tier: Foundation and Higher
Duration: 50 minutes per lesson (200 minutes total)
Exam Boards: AQA, Edexcel, OCR, Eduqas, CCEA

Learning Objectives

Prerequisites

Materials & Equipment

Lesson 1: Introduction: correlation & regression

Duration: 50 minutes

Starter Activity (5 minutes)

Quick Recall

Write down everything you already know about correlation & regression. Then check against the key terms: key terms from correlation & regression. Use a mini-whiteboard or paper.

Main Content (35 minutes)

Parent/Teacher Guide:
Before lesson: Read the script below. Pre-teach key vocab: key terms from correlation & regression.
If stuck: Re-read the revision notes (link above), then break the content into smaller steps.
Extension: See the Stretch & Challenge ideas in Lesson 4.
Teaching Script (35 mins):
Mins 0-5 - Hook: "Today: correlation & regression. By the end you will be able to answer exam questions on it unaided. It connects to the rest of Statistics because the ideas here recur across the spec."
Mins 5-20 - Direct Instruction: Work through the core ideas below one at a time; after each, ask your student to explain it back in their own words.
Mins 20-30 - Guided Practice: Model the worked example together, then let your student attempt the first practice question with guidance.
Mins 30-35 - Independent Practice: 2-3 practice questions from Lesson 3 below, with immediate feedback.
First Look

Start with the revision notes summary, then attempt: explain the key ideas of correlation & regression

Plenary (5 minutes)

Check Out

Your student states one thing they learned and one question they still have about correlation & regression.

Lesson 2: Core Concepts: correlation & regression

Duration: 50 minutes

Starter Activity (5 minutes)

Review Previous Lesson

Quick recap: write 3 key points from Lesson 1 on correlation & regression. Check them against the notes below.

Main Content (35 minutes)

Key Fact: Correlation measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables; it does not imply causation.
Key Fact: Positive correlation: as one variable increases, the other tends to increase. Negative correlation: as one increases, the other tends to decrease.
Key Fact: A scatter graph is the first step in assessing correlation; the pattern of points reveals the type and strength of the relationship.
Key Fact: A line of best fit is drawn through the data points on a scatter graph so that roughly equal numbers of points lie above and below the line.
Key Fact: The line of best fit should pass through the point (x̄, ̅) and can be used to estimate one variable given a value of the other.
Key Fact: Interpolation is using the line of best fit to estimate within the range of observed data; it is generally reliable.

Practice (10 minutes)

Q: explain the key ideas of correlation & regression

Answer:

Plenary (5 minutes)

Explain Back

Your student teaches the key points back to you without looking. Fill any gaps immediately.

Lesson 3: Application: correlation & regression

Duration: 50 minutes

Starter Activity (5 minutes)

Quick Recall

Recall the key terms: key terms from correlation & regression. Define each in one sentence.

Main Content (35 minutes)

Parent/Teacher Guide: Let your student attempt each question alone first, then compare with the model answer. Award method marks for correct working even if the final answer is wrong.

Work through the practice questions on the revision notes page for this topic.

Plenary (5 minutes)

Error Review

Review any questions answered incorrectly. Identify whether the error was knowledge, method, or reading the question.

Lesson 4: Exam Practice: correlation & regression

Duration: 50 minutes

Starter Activity (5 minutes)

Command Words

Review what these command words require: state (one point), describe (say what happens), explain (say why), compare (both sides), evaluate (judgement).

Main Content (35 minutes)

Extended Answer

Extended question: Full-Mark Response Two judges rank 6 films. Calculate Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Film: A, B, C, D, E, F Judge 1 ranks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Judge 2 ranks: 2, 1, 4, 3, 6, 5 <div class="

Film | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | d (R1–R2) | d² A | 1 | 2 | –1 | 1 B | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 C | 3 | 4 | –1 | 1 D | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 E | 5 | 6 | –1 | 1 F | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 Σd² = 6 rₛ = 1 – 6Σd² ÷ (n(n² – 1)) = 1 – (6 × 6) ÷ (6 × 35) = 1 – 36 ÷ 210 = 1 – 0.171 = 0.829 rₛ ≈ 0.83, indicating strong positive agreement between the two judges. They rank the films in a very similar order.

Exam Tips: When calculating Spearman's rank, if two or more values are tied, assign each the mean of the ranks they would have occupied. | Always state the type and strength of correlation (e.g. 'strong positive') when describing a scatter graph — do not just say 'there is a correlation'. | When using a line of best fit for predictions, always state whether you are interpolating or extrapolating and comment on reliability. | In Spearman's rank questions, show a table of data values, ranks, rank differences (d), and d² to gain full method marks. | When asked 'does correlation imply causation?', the answer is always no — explain that other factors (confounding variables) could cause both variables to cha
Common Errors: ✗ Forgetting to rank the data before calculating Spearman's rₛ ✓ Spearman's uses RANKS, not the raw data values. Assign ranks from 1 (smallest) to n (largest) for each variable separately. ✗ Confusing interpolation with extrapolation ✓ Interpolation is WITHIN the data range (reliable); extrapolation is OUTSIDE the data range (unreliable). Always check the x-value against the observed range. ✗ Saying 'correlation proves causation' ✓ Correlation shows association only; causation requires controlled experiments or further evidence. Always state that correlation does not imply causation. ✗ Not drawing the line of best fit through the mean point (x̄, ̅) ✓ The line of best fit must pass through (x
Stretch & Challenge (Grade 8-9):
  • Synoptic links: explain how correlation &amp; regression connects to another Statistics topic you have studied
  • Real-world: research one real-world use or example of correlation &amp; regression
  • Critical: "What are the limitations of the models used in correlation &amp; regression?"

Plenary (5 minutes)

Assessment Criteria
  • Got it: Confident explanation + correct worked examples
  • Getting there: Main points OK, needs support with detail
  • Not yet: Confused on key concepts - re-run Lesson 2

Homework & Consolidation

Recommended Resources

🎓 Smart Lesson (Guided)